Deciphering Public Opinion Polls

For the next month, the press will bombard the American public with a flurry of election polling: some good, some bad, many unintelligible, and almost all of them meaningless. Most of the polls will be presented to support one agenda/candidate/party or another. Usually the substance, if any, will be buried in a steaming pile of irrelevant facts and unsupported assertions.

With this in mind, allow me to suggest some basic rules for understanding and evaluating public opinion polls.

Rule #1: Polls are fundamentally easy to understand.

The first rule is to accept the basic principle that polls are easy to understand--so easy that a news reporter could do it . . . if the reporter actually tries. Regrettably, too many reporters consistently fail to even make the attempt.

Anyone who can add, subtract, multiply, and divide simple numbers can understand the results of a poll. Beyond the basic math, it's just a matter of knowing and applying a few principles and understanding a few key terms.

Continued after the jump

The Barricades of Washington

A Photo Essay of the Capital's Response to Terrorism

I had intended to write this post more that a year ago, but life beyond the blog intervened.

In the eleven years since 9/11, the landscape of Washington, DC, has undergone dramatic changes. Yet while these changes are dramatic from the perspective of a decade, they have occurred so gradually that they quickly fade into the background. These changes were foreshadowed by temporary responses to previous wars and bombings, but they have since been incorporated into the very structure of the city--a city and a federal government that is much less accessible than it was in the 20th century.

continued after the jump

Update: Stating the Obvious

To my few, occasional readers—amazingly, there still are a few—allow me to state the obvious:

Because of life beyond the blog, particularly my pursuit of a master's degree in military history at Norwich University, new blog posts will likely be extraordinarily rare until I graduate in mid 2012. As time permits and my the need to vent demands, I will post new rants blog posts.

Incidentally, almost two months into my degree program, my experience has been consistently good. Norwich knows how to do online learning right. I've also been pleasantly surprised at the emphasis my program places on good writing, something that is desperately lacking in academia and elsewhere.

For now, I will continue to twit (I refuse to "tweet") on most weekdays, pointing to various interesting items I find surfing the Web. These are available (usually) in the Twitter feed in the left column.

Goal of the Week: Buddle Goal Against Seattle

An unbelievable strike by Edson Buddle (LA Galaxy) against the Seattle Sounders in the first leg of the playoffs. Kasey Keller, one of the best goalies in MLS, didn't have a chance. It was the only goal of the match, but what a goal.

The Laffer Cliff

The idea for this post has been bouncing around in my head for months, delayed by life beyond the blog. Hopefully, the idea aged well.

Who'd have thunk it? At least one practitioner of the dismal "science" can be both entertaining and informative.

Allow me to introduce Dr. Arthur Laffer of Laffer Curve fame, an economic theory that Ben Stein used as material in his classic portrayal of a deadly boring economics teacher in Ferris Bueller's Day Off.

[The movie clip may not appear until after the jump.]

Rediscovering Capitalism: Lessons from the Mistakes of Marxist-Leninism

Disclaimer: I copyedited this book, and the author is a friend and colleague.

More than a year ago, a colleague asked me to help copyedit a book she was writing: Rediscovering Fire: Basic Economic Lessons from the Soviet Experiment to Eliminate the Market. When she explained the idea behind the book--using the Soviets' experiences as a series of experiments to demonstrate fundamental laws of economics (i.e., capitalism)--I was intrigued, in part because of my background in Soviet and Russian studies. In a fit of generosity, I agreed, which I came to partially regret later when my schedule became ridiculously busy due factors outside of work. (I was already quite busy at work.)

When I actually began working on it, the regret disappeared. Her idea was as good as it had sounded. Repeatedly, the Soviets had destroyed the market and its mechanisms only to realize that they needed to recreate them to make the Soviet economy function at all. Naturally, their attempts to mimic market forces through central planning were at best half measures, which promptly failed, leaving the leaders to rediscover and reinstitute market forces under various thin disguises. The whole episode of Soviet economic experimentation would make a wonderful comedy if it had not condemned millions to misery and even death.

The book is well worth a read.

I take some pleasure in the cover by John Cox. I referred Guinevere to John Cox, a favorite cartoonist and caricaturist of mine, who has an eye for absurd.

Note: If you see any typos in this book, I don't want to hear about them. They are obviously the publisher's fault. :-)

Related Links
On Amazon.com: Guinevere Liberty Nell, Rediscovering Fire: Basic Economic Lessons from the Soviet Experiment to Eliminate the Market (2010).
John Cox Art, website

"Board at your own risk"

Photo courtesy of WMATA

Something unique happened on my commute home, which is usually a bad thing, but not so much today.

When I boarded a Metro train at Union Station, the driver started warning passengers that the air conditioning was out in all six cars of the train and that it was a "hot train." She continued by warning that anyone with a medical condition should get off and wait for the next train.

Hot Metro cars are nothing new to me, but an entire train is and so were the warnings. Either this driver was seriously concerned about the welfare of her passengers or Metro may actually be getting serious about improving customer service. Hopefully, both.


But this was not the end of the warnings. She topped everything with "Board at your own risk," which I found  quite funny and refreshingly direct. The irony of a train driver urging passengers not to board her train was delicious. I don't even remember if she followed silly Metro practice of referring to the passengers as "customers," which has always annoyed me as a needlessly imprecise term.

If I'd been going a longer distance, I would have waited for the next train. Hot cars can be quite exhausting. Instead, I enjoyed watching the other travelers react to the driver's warnings as they boarded at each station.

If the driver came up with this routine on her own, she should be immediately promoted to management, which appears to need some clear thinkers.


Related Reading
Dr. Gridlock, "Miserable weather for Metro," Washington Post
Unsuck DC Metro blog

To twit or not to twit?

First, my apologies condolences to Shakespeare for mangling his words in yet another way.

For years I have avoided online social networking like the plague it is. I have responded to invitations to join Facebook with barely disguised disdain, and the idea of using Twitter repulsed me. How can anything substantive be shared in 140 characters or less? Truly, the users appeared to be twits (silly peevish persons or fools per Webster's). The whole thing seemed like a joke on the users, thinly concealed by defining "to tweet" as the verb form of using Twitter.

What can I say--I surrendered to peer pressure. Shortly after returning from my tour of Israel, I joined Facebook to keep in at least minimal contact with my new friends from the tour. A few days ago, I gave into the "final" ignominy by setting up a Twitter account for this blog to allow me to easily share links to items that catch my interest. (It actually is quite simple.)

Yet I still have my limits. I absolutely refuse to "tweet," which seems too cute by half.

I will "twit" (to subject to ridicule or reproach) instead, particularly the politicians in Washington who frequently act like twits.

Who knows how I will capitulate next? Maybe I'll buy a smartphone and start downloading apps.

Update: Lawlessness in the U.S. Department of Justice

This has been bubbling for a few days, and DOJ has "responded" to J. Christian Adams' charges. Apparently, DOJ officials feel they can't afford to ignore, even though the "mainstream" media has ignored it so far.

Adams responded to the smears:

The problem with smearing me is that there are many others who know the truth inside the Department. Documents which they refuse to turn over pursuant to subpoenas from the Civil Rights Commission prove it. Testimony from other DOJ employees, which they refuse to allow, would also prove it.

Where is the mainstream media? This should be fairly easy to corroborate.


Source
"DOJ Slimes Whistleblower Adams in Panthergate Case," PajamasMedia

Lawlessness in the U.S. Department of Justice

An op-ed by J. Christian Adams, a former voting rights lawyer in the U.S. Department of Justice, levels some damning charges at the Obama Justice Department, particularly the Civil Rights Division and the Voting Section. The charges appear to be internally consistent and consistent with known facts.

The flashpoint was the decision to dismiss the case against the New Black Panther Party for voter intimidation in Philadelphia at the polls on election day in November 2008. By all reliable accounts, the government had a strong case, but an Obama appointee and another DOJ lawyer ordered the dismissal against the strong objections of the lawyers pursuing the case.

While one apparent miscarriage of justice is bad enough, this incident may evidence deep-seated corruption within the Civil Rights Division of the Obama Justice Department. Adams reports that "instructions were given that no more cases against racial minorities like the Black Panther case would be brought by the Voting Section." In other words, certain minorities are above the law. This is neither justice, nor "equal protection of the laws" (14th Amendment). A scarier question is: How widespread is this corruption in the Justice Department?

Hat tip: Hot Air

Further Reading
"DOJ Attorney resigns due to…racism?" HotAir
"Court: Obama's DOJ Lacking Transparency," The Judiciary Report

World Cup Controversies, Gaffes, and Highlights

The World Cup always creates controversy--that's part of its charm. Predictably, it began months before the first game with the traditional grousing about the ball. Each World Cup has its own ball. This year it's Jabulani, which means "to celebrate" in isiZulu.

The World Cup is now in full swing, and group play (the round-robin stage) has already produced its share of highlights and lowlights. The three that follow caught my attention. (Yes, I'm obviously biased toward the U.S. team.)

Utterly Amazing Goal by Maicon (Brazil v. North Korea)

Video link (ESPN)
This goal seemed to defy the laws of physics, and Maicon did this at a full sprint. What a great way to start off the World Cup . . . unless you're from North Korea.

The Euro's Dive: The Story in a Chart

In five months, the euro has lost about 20 percent of its value versus the U.S. dollar. Granted, the euro was probably overvalued in December--partially because of increasing discontent with U.S. dollar and the increasing irresponsible U.S. fiscal policy--but the euro's decline strikes me (a slightly informed observer) as something more fundamental than a market correction to an temporarily overpriced currency. If the stock of a publicly traded company dropped like this, its investors would be extremely worried.

Karl-Heinz Schnibbe: Mourning the Passing of Hero

Upon returning from my trip abroad, I was saddened to hear that Karl-Heinz Schnibbe had died on Sunday, May 9, in Salt Lake City--65 years plus one day after the Third Reich surrendered. I never personally met Mr. Schnibbe, but the story of him and the other members of the Hübener Group has inspired me for years. He was the last surviving member of the Hübener Group.

My interest began with the book The Price, Schnibbe's autobiography of his experiences in Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. The book was a gift from my parents when I was a teenager. It continued with Huebner, a play in God's Fools, a book of plays by Thomas Rogers, which was a birthday gift from my brother. Huebner probably had the greatest effect on me because in it Dr. Rogers, later a professor of mine at BYU, brought to life the dilemmas of conscience that Helmet Hübener, Karl Schnibbe, and Ruddi Wobbe--among others--faced as Mormons trying to live their religion in Nazi Germany. Some years ago, I had the privilege of seeing Huebner performed at BYU, and Schnibbe was present and was introduced to the audience at that showing.

The more I have learned about the Hübener Group, the more their story has fascinated and inspired me, both for their bravery and for their willingness to act on their beliefs in standing up to a ruthless totalitarian regime.

First Impressions of Israel, Greece, and Paris

The mental fog is beginning to lift as my sleep patterns are returning to "normal," so it seems time to regurgitate a few first impressions from my travels in Israel, Greece, and Paris.

Quick Hits
In Israel, you can't swing a (rather thin) cat without hitting a tourist or a church (or synagogue or mosque). In Bethlehem, which is in Palestinian territory, you can't swing a cat without hitting the street merchants who swarm to sell unsuspecting tourists a wide range of generally unwanted goods. In Athens, you can't swing a dog (I didn't see any cats in Athens, but I'm told that they almost run the island of Santorini) without hitting an archaeological dig. In Paris, the city and the people are too beautiful and distracting to even think of swinging a cat (or dog). (No dogs or cats were harmed or even touched in the construction of this paragraph.)

Israel
All of the road signs were in three languages: Hebrew, Arabic, and English. Minarets were everywhere, making Israel appear more Muslim than Jewish. The landscape looks remarkably like Utah with barren hills and minimal vegetation--in other words an arid desert--except that the Israelis tend to build their cities and towns on the tops of the hills.

EU Monopoly Money

In preparing for a trip to Europe, I recently exchange some dollars for what looks like Monopoly money. (It's helpful to have some of the local currency in hand when arriving in country.) Unfortunately, the euro currently trades for about 1.35 dollars, so it cost me a lot more than Monopoly money.

(But I suppose this is preferable to a time in 1994 when I withdrew 250,000 rubles from a bank and traveled halfway across Moscow to buy a train ticket to Berlin.)

Links of the Day Archive

Until I find a better, easier way (and the time to implement it), I'm archiving my Links of the Day in this blog post. I'll update it approximately every week.

The First Fallout from ObamaCare

Mike shot in Operation Ivy (1952)

We are just beginning to experience the fallout from ObamaCare, and the effects won't be confined to the health care sector.

As required by federal regulations (or perhaps laws--I'm not completely sure which) SEC rules, Caterpillar has announced that it will take a $100 million hit in 2010 due to "additional taxes stemming from newly enacted U.S. health-care legislation." John Deere, another manufacturer of construction equipment, has announced that it expects to take a $150 million hit because of ObamaCare. AT&T has announced that it will take a "$1 billion non-cash charge for the current quarter." 3M plans to take a $85 million to $90 million charge related to ObamaCare. These losses will continue to pile up as more publicly traded companies report major changes in their financial situations. (This is one instance where a federal regulations rules are actually serving a public good.)

As these hits accumulate, the effects will rampage through the economy causing destruction far beyond the health care sector. In the construction industry alone, which is already struggling to put it mildly, these losses will destroy jobs (or slow job creation), increase construction costs, and give Caterpillar and John Deere yet another incentive to relocate operations outside the United States. Perhaps we should call ObamaCare the American Jobs and Businesses Destruction and Deportation Act.

Rehashing the ObamaCare Debacle

The health care "reform" bill was and is a debacle, but not the way I had hoped it would be.

I should know better than to try to predict how Congress will act , much less how specific members of Congress will vote when under concerted pressure from the President and their congressional leadership. (See my previous post: Obamu's Health Care Debacle.) But I let my hopes cloud my political judgment.

The vote in the House was disappointing, but it should not have been surprising to see Representative Stupak sell out his stated anti-abortion beliefs for an essentially meaningless executive order. A presidential executive order cannot change a law—in this case, the Senate health care bill—although it can affect to some degree how a law is enforced. However, an executive order carries no guarantees. President Obama or any future President can withdraw it at any time without any warning.

I assume that Stupak at least knows this, so despite his protests that he was acting on principle to protect the lives of the unborn, he knows that the executive order is worthless. This leads me to the conclusion that he was just looking for political cover.

Goal of the Week: Adam Johnson v. Sunderland

 And now for something completely different . . .

This may seem almost sacrilegious during March Madness, but a few days ago I caught the last few minutes of the soccer game between Sunderland and Manchester City, two teams in the Premier League, probably the best soccer (the British would say "football") league in the world.

The game was already in stoppage time, and Sunderland was seconds away from upsetting Man City by a score of 1-0. Then Adam Johnson ruined their day by tying the game with an absolutely brilliant goal, curving the ball into the upper left corner of the goal. The goalkeeper and the defender on the line had absolutely no chance of stopping it.

For the video, see the Soccer Portal or the Manchester City website. Truly an amazing strike.

Guarding Against the Dangers of Good Intentions

When lacking wisdom oneself, its often helpful to steal from quote wiser people. In this case, Daniel Webster said a few things in 1837 that are remarkable on point in the current debate about health care, among other things:

I believe the power of the executive has increased, is increasing, and ought now to be brought back within its ancient constitutional limits. I have nothing to do with the motives which have led to those acts, which I believe to have transcended the boundaries of the Constitution. Good motives may always be assumed, as bad motives may always be imputed. Good intentions will always be pleaded for every assumption of power; but they cannot justify it, even if we were sure that they existed.